Obama's fighting chance at winning the presidency
George E Curry/NNPA Columnist
Issue date: 7/6/08 Section: Politics
Barack Obama defeated Hillary and Bill Clinton by outsmarting them in the Democratic primary. While Hillary set her eyes on large states, the scrappy Illinois senator did the math and figured he could defeat her with guerilla attacks in selected congressional districts in the big states while thumping her in the largely ignored caucus states. The strategy paid off as Obama narrowly defeated the Clinton machine.
Obama is set to pull off an even larger upset by defying political wisdom, which hasn't been wise in recent months. The naysayers - the ones predicting a Clinton victory over Obama - say the numbers aren't there.
The Chicago Tribune ran the numbers recently and came to a startling conclusion: if Obama can inspire a 10 percent increase in Black and young Democratic voters, that margin might be enough to propel him to wins in nine key states that Democrats lost in 2004 and could win in 2008, thus paving the way for an Obama victory.
A June 25 story in the Tribune noted, "If Obama could inspire just 10 percent more Democratic voters under 30 to go to the polls than did four years ago, that alone could switch Iowa and New Mexico from red to blue, the analysis suggests.
"Just a 10 percent increase in turnout among Blacks would make up more than 40 percent of George W. Bush's 2004 victory margin in Ohio and more than 20 percent of the Republicans' 2004 victory margin in Florida."
According to a recent CBS/New York Times poll, voters in the 18 to 39 age group favored Obama over McCain by a margin of 66 percent to 27 percent. Approximately 90 percent of Blacks have been voting for Obama.
With African Americans and young people making up the strongest part of Obama's base, a victory in November is within reach. That's certainly the case if history is any indication.
When Jesse Jackson ran for president in 1984, Black registration and turnout increased by 11 percent, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Exit polls from some states show that Black turnout doubled this year amid Obamania.
Obama is set to pull off an even larger upset by defying political wisdom, which hasn't been wise in recent months. The naysayers - the ones predicting a Clinton victory over Obama - say the numbers aren't there.
The Chicago Tribune ran the numbers recently and came to a startling conclusion: if Obama can inspire a 10 percent increase in Black and young Democratic voters, that margin might be enough to propel him to wins in nine key states that Democrats lost in 2004 and could win in 2008, thus paving the way for an Obama victory.
A June 25 story in the Tribune noted, "If Obama could inspire just 10 percent more Democratic voters under 30 to go to the polls than did four years ago, that alone could switch Iowa and New Mexico from red to blue, the analysis suggests.
"Just a 10 percent increase in turnout among Blacks would make up more than 40 percent of George W. Bush's 2004 victory margin in Ohio and more than 20 percent of the Republicans' 2004 victory margin in Florida."
According to a recent CBS/New York Times poll, voters in the 18 to 39 age group favored Obama over McCain by a margin of 66 percent to 27 percent. Approximately 90 percent of Blacks have been voting for Obama.
With African Americans and young people making up the strongest part of Obama's base, a victory in November is within reach. That's certainly the case if history is any indication.
When Jesse Jackson ran for president in 1984, Black registration and turnout increased by 11 percent, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Exit polls from some states show that Black turnout doubled this year amid Obamania.
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Joshua Colasacco
posted 11/03/08 @ 11:54 AM EST
Obama or McCain are good candidates to even run for presidency because McCain gets elected, most of congress is Democratic so they wont let him do anything, and Obama is jipping people with taxes that people dont understand. (Continued…)
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